I have done a couple of 2025 posts (here and here) drawing on big city “real time” homicide data from police departments to detail the remarkable decline in murders apparently unfolding in many large urban areas through the first part of 2025. Though these data may not be representative of the whole nation and the trends may not persist through 2025, I continue to want to speculate that we may be in the middle of a (post-COVID spike) great crime decline. And yet, I still see relatively little discussion of these data and trends which is what I keep wanting to slag notable discussions of these topics for a few sourses:
From External Processing, “Explaining the COVID Violence Spike and the Roaring Crime Decline: Four Reasons for the Historic Beginning to the 2020s“
From Jeff-alytics, “How 2025 Could Feature The Lowest US Murder Rate Ever Recorded: Maybe!“
These pieces have lots of interesting data and insights and merit reas in full. I will conclude just with a focus on Jeff Asher’s summary statement in Jeff-alytics post: “There are a ton of hypotheticals and factors that could change…. But it’s fairly clear that a decline in the direction we’re currently seeing would safely give 2025 the title of lowest US murder rate ever recorded.”