President Obama announced a bilateral agreement between the United States and China for the United States to reduce emission 26 to 28 percent below 2005 levels by 2025, and China will peak its emissions by 2030. Those are the central pieces of the deal. There is also agreement to jointly pursue carbon capture and sequestration, funding for a new US-China energy research center, and other feel-goodies, but clearly something that speaks directly to emissions is the big deal.
Congressional Republicans are quick to dismiss the deal as being one-sided. Which is true, but the alternative is no deal at all. The issue really is that what matters more is the level at which China peaks than when it peaks. Importantly, though, a 2030 peak will likely keep China below a BAU baseline. It also represents a step in that China is moving away from an intensity target — which is no cap at all — to a mass-based cap.
Everyone who reads the newspaper understands the inherent caution and conservatism of Chinese foreign policy, which is driven by the Chinese Communist Party's Politburo Standing Committee, the real decisionmaker, and which makes decision by consensus and under strict Chatham House rules. Policy changes slowly in China. It is unclear when a cap might be announced, so that there will be a "how much" and not just a "when," but it is clear Chinese climate policy will be made in steps.