Democratic voters nationwide are eager to send a message to President Trump, but is there enough anti-Trump sentiment for Democrats to win control of the House? Are Trump’s voters unique, and will they turn out for Republican congressional candidates? In the Senate, Democrats must protect 10 incumbents in states Trump won in 2016. Can Republicans add to their narrow Senate majority, or will Democrats sweep both the House and Senate?
More importantly, what would the different election results mean for legislative policy on Capitol Hill in 2019? As Trump begins to campaign in earnest for his 2020 re-election, would a Democrat House mean gridlock returns to the Hill? Are there policy areas where Democrats and Trump could find common ground? How would Democratic leaders balance the interests of governing with their political base’s interest in impeaching Trump?
On June 12, 2018, the leader of BakerHostetler’s Federal Policy team, the Honorable Michael Ferguson, and Jim Ellis of Ellis Insights hosted a webinar providing analysis of the 2018 mid-term congressional elections. Mike and Jim discussed key races to watch and identified paths both parties will have to navigate to win control of Congress.