Mohammad Akbarpour (Stanford University), Cody Cook (Stanford University), Aude Marzuoli (Replica), Simon Mongey (University of Chicago), Abhishek Nagaraj (UC Berkeley-Haas), Matteo Saccarola (University of Chicago), Pietro Tebaldi (University of Chicago), Shoshana Vasserman (Stanford University), Hanbin Yang (Harvard University), Socioeconomic Network Heterogeneity and Pandemic Policy Response, U. Chi. Becker Friedman Inst. Econ. Working Paper No. 2020-75:
We develop and implement a heterogeneous-agents network-based empirical model to analyze alternative policies during a pandemic outbreak. We use this framework to analyze the impact of different social distancing policies in the context of the COVID-19 outbreaks across US metropolitan areas. Our results highlight how outcomes vary across areas in relation to the underlying heterogeneity in population density, social network structures, population health, and employment characteristics. We find that policies by which individuals who can work from home continue to do so, or in which schools and firms alternate schedules across different groups of students and employees, can be effective in limiting the health and healthcare costs of the pandemic outbreak while also reducing employment losses.