Underestimating Religion

Mitt Romney just wrapped up victory in Illinois and, for the moment, quelled republican fears that Santorum would fundamentally alter the race. Some now are willing to say the race is all but over. What has struck me throughout this season is how committed the establishment has been to ending this process in favor of Romney, notwithstanding his intractable weakness with evangelicals. I am not sure the establishment or media fully understand or appreciate his weakness. Framing his struggle as a southern or conservative “problem” understates the issue. More accurately, it is an immovable obstacle. In race after race, he is trounced in the evangelical column. While evangelicals are deeply committed to the Republican Party, that commitment is born out of religion and, from their perspective, Romney does not share their religion.

Evangelicals routinely go on mission trips during the summer to convert Mormons. To the outsider, the differences between Mormons and evangelicals may not appear to be significantly larger than the differences between evangelicals and Catholics. Yet, evangelicals do not make routine treks to the northeast to convert Catholics. They see Catholics as Christians. They do not see Mormons as Christians. This is not the sort of thing evangelicals might want to announce in civil society or an issue on which a politically correct media would want to fan the flames, but it is real nonetheless.

This does not mean that evangelicals will vote in droves for Obama. Quite the contrary. A majority will show up to vote for Romney should he be the candidate because, like any other religion, not all evangelicals are devout or hard-liners. These evangelicals will have little problem voting for any Republican whose name lands on the ticket. But the key to winning a general election in a close race is turnout. Short of a summer conversion, I don’t see how Romney can generate huge turnout among one of the party’s key demographics.

None of this is a critique of religion, but rather an attempt to connect back to my blog earlier today about the new study on racial attitudes and their effect on health care opinions. What does a study on race have to do with Romney’s religion? In addition to race, the study noted the importance of sharing religious identity with a political leader. Thus, a key question in this election cycle is whether religious identity is more important than race in politics? That question is too simple, just like the study’s comparisons of Obama healthcare reform versus Clinton reform was too simple. Sometimes race is more important and sometimes religion is.

Fully sorting out “sometimes” would require an article, but for a subset of evangelicals, religion is more important than anything and disqualifies Romney. For a portion of Americans, race is more important than anything. But among independents and democrats, that number is relatively small. Thus, in terms of turn-out, Obama would presumptively have a significant advantage in a close race. Then again, maybe I underestimate the extent to which hating a candidate (in this instance Obama) can cause one to lose one’s religion, at least momentarily. I don’t think as many hate Romney and therein lies is biggest strength.