The Prosecutor’s fallacy
This is the classic illustration: a murder takes place. The forensics team identify hair from the crime scene. A DNA test is carried out, indicating that someone with a previous conviction who lives in the same town
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The future of employment litigation
The justice system’s debts
You don’t have to pore through the pages of the Ministry of Justice’s statistics publications to be struck by the stark imbalance between the tally of employment cases that are filed each year, and the tribunal
Why claims don’t settle more often
I do not propose to set out a complete explanation – but one factor is a mismatch between expectations and the reality. There is a survivor bias in the media whereby high-value payouts are widely reported, and the generality of
Brier scores and the Bar
Most barristers are independent professionals. In practice this means they are self-employed and in competition with each other.
It is notoriously difficult to get into the English Bar (3,000 annual applicants, >400 places so prior probability of an 11% chance
(Friday off-topic) : we know nothing
When I was a child, we occasionally invited family over for a couple of days around dinner. I was always very excited to see family members at this time of year: they lived several hours’ drive away so it was
Building Bayesian priors for Unfair dismissal awards
A histogram showing the spread of awards for unfair dismissal in 2020Each year solicitors’ firms publish summaries of the latest tribunal statistics on unfair dismissal (among other types of claim).
The summaries invariably include the following data – the maximum
Game theory — and Scottish independence — Alex MacMillan:
A brief excursus from the law to tackle current affairs…
Following the electoral results from Saturday (8 May 2021), the Financial Times reports today that Michael Gove, UK Cabinet Office Minister, has waved aside the suggestion that an advisory referendum
How *not* to negotiate
Owning the space About 20 years ago, one of my friends, now a very senior lawyer in the banking sector with a stellar career behind him, was a rookie Associate at a well-known London Magic Circle firm. He kindly explained
A solution to the employment tribunals’ backlog?
Role of conciliation If you are UK worker, or rather working under a contract falling within the jurisdiction of the UK’s employment tribunals service, and you wish to claim against your employer, you will lodge a claim with the Employment
Is legal advice worth it?
Two systems of thought Whether you are a prospective claimant or a company responding to an employment law claim, the pressures of litigation are likely to demand your attention and draw you into a series of time-limited actions. In his