As the transition of Federal Executive power takes place, the first 100 days of a Presidential administration often sets the tone for the policies and direction of the upcoming four years. With former President Donald Trump returning to office in 2024, his immigration policies are expected to take center stage once again, just as they did during his first term. Immediate executive actions early in his presidency will likely play a pivotal role in shaping the future of U.S. immigration policy, with far-reaching changes that could profoundly affect immigrants, their families, and American society for years to come.

Likely Immediate Actions and Executive Orders

Trump’s administration is known for its reliance on executive orders to push through its priorities swiftly, avoiding the complexities of the legislative process. As Trump begins his second term, it’s anticipated that immigration will be a focal point of his early actions. Key measures could include a reinforcement of the border wall, a continuation of the “America First” immigration agenda, and a return to policies designed to restrict immigration and increase deportations.

  • Family Detention Facilities for Mass Deportations: One of the most immediate and aggressive changes expected under Trump’s second term could be the establishment of large-scale family detention facilities. Under the leadership of Tom Homan, Trump’s “border czar,” these facilities would be used to detain migrant families, including U.S.-born children, while they await deportation. This plan would allow the administration to expand its deportation capacity, potentially removing thousands of families in a single sweep. While Homan asserts that the facilities will not be inhumane, the prospect of family separations, extended detentions, and the psychological toll on children is a concern for many. The scope of this operation would be unprecedented, requiring significant funding from Congress and cooperation from countries like Guatemala to accept deportees. This could substantially alter the immigration landscape, particularly for those seeking asylum or refuge in the U.S. 
  • Guatemala’s Role in Deportations: A significant development that may play a role on Trump’s first day in office is Guatemala’s increased cooperation with the U.S. on deportations. After discussions with Trump’s team, Guatemala has agreed to accept deportees from the U.S., particularly those from Central American countries. This could streamline the deportation process, especially for migrants from the region, but it also raises concerns about the economic impact on Guatemala, particularly the loss of remittances from deported individuals. This shift in deportation policy could have far-reaching consequences for families in both the U.S. and in Central America, potentially leaving many vulnerable to the instability and violence that they fled.
  • Reinstating the Travel Ban: Another likely action is the reactivation of the controversial travel ban targeting several Muslim-majority countries, as well as others deemed security risks. While this policy faced legal challenges during Trump’s first term, there is a high likelihood that Trump will either renew the travel ban or introduce similar restrictions for individuals from countries he views as threats to national security. This policy could immediately affect individuals from these countries seeking to enter the U.S. for business, study, or family reunification, disrupting not only their lives but also international diplomatic and economic relations.
  • Changes to Asylum and Refugee Admissions: Trump’s administration is expected to reintroduce more restrictive policies for asylum seekers and refugees, particularly those from Central America, Africa, and the Middle East. The “Remain in Mexico” policy, which forced asylum applicants to stay in Mexico while waiting for their U.S. court hearings, may be reinstated. This has faced criticism for placing individuals in unsafe, often inhumane conditions. Additionally, the refugee admissions cap, which was significantly reduced during Trump’s first term, could be tightened further, limiting the number of individuals allowed to seek refuge in the U.S. This would likely further strain international humanitarian efforts and leave many in limbo, unable to safely return to their home countries.

Humanitarian Protections: A Major Shift

Alongside the expected border control measures, several large humanitarian parole programs are also likely to face immediate termination. These programs, which were implemented during the Biden administration to provide protections for vulnerable groups, could be reversed or ended entirely under Trump’s leadership.

  • The End of CHNV and U4U Programs: One of the most immediate shifts on Day One could be the cessation of the Biden-era programs for Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans, Venezuelans (CHNV), and Ukrainians (U4U). These programs allowed approximately 500,000 individuals to receive temporary humanitarian parole, which typically provides a legal entry into the United States, two-year period of protection from deportation and an employment authorization document (EAD). By December 2023, these programs had been widely credited with offering refuge to those fleeing oppressive regimes, economic hardship, and war. If these programs are halted, thousands of parolees will be left at risk of deportation once their protections expire unless they are able to secure asylum or another form of status adjustment before then.
  • Revocation of Existing Status: There are growing concerns that the new administration may not only stop processing new applications for these parole programs but may also attempt to revoke the existing status of those already in the U.S. under these programs. This would create a major crisis, particularly for those who have already built lives in the U.S. and whose ability to remain in the country would be jeopardized. Such a move could affect hundreds of thousands of individuals, most of whom are from countries facing political or economic turmoil, forcing them to return to conditions they fled in the first place.
  • Temporary Protected Status (TPS) at Risk: Another key humanitarian program at risk under the new administration is Temporary Protected Status (TPS). TPS grants protection from deportation and work authorization to individuals from countries experiencing crises like environmental disasters, armed conflict, or other severe instability. Currently, more than 850,000 individuals live in the U.S. under TPS. However, under mandates proposed by Project 2025, the TPS designations could be repealed, stripping recipients of their work permits and protection from deportation. This change would leave many vulnerable to removal, despite years of living in the U.S. under a legal status.

How These Policies Will Affect Immigrants

The immediate effect of these policy changes will be felt by millions of immigrants, including individuals who have lived in the U.S. for years under temporary protection programs and those seeking refuge from violence and persecution.

  • Increased Deportations: Trump’s focus on mass deportations will likely lead to the removal of thousands of individuals, including families, who have resided in the U.S. for years without legal status. The establishment of more family detention facilities will ensure that deportations occur quickly and efficiently. Immigrant families, particularly those from Central America, may face prolonged separations, with children being detained alongside their parents. The use of Guatemala as a deportation destination will add an additional layer of complexity to this issue, creating instability in the sending countries as well.
  • Economic Strain in Sending Countries: The removal of large numbers of migrants, especially those from Central America, would reduce the flow of remittances that have been a critical lifeline for families in countries like Guatemala and Honduras. The loss of these financial resources could destabilize local economies, further exacerbating poverty and violence. The deportation of migrants who have lived in the U.S. for years, and who may have children born in the U.S., could also contribute to rising tensions in the region as countries face the economic and social consequences of their return.
  • Impact on Family Reunification: Trump’s policies are expected to further complicate family reunification processes, particularly for those seeking to reunite with relatives already living in the U.S. Efforts to curb family-based immigration will likely lead to longer waiting times or outright denials for those attempting to bring relatives into the U.S. The inability to reunite families will cause significant emotional distress, disrupt lives, and could lead to increased mental health challenges among immigrant communities.
  • Skilled Immigration and Economic Effects: While Trump’s focus has been on limiting undocumented or low-skilled immigration, there is ongoing debate within his coalition about skilled, or employment based immigration. Tech industry leaders, including Elon Musk, have called for more access to foreign talent through programs like the H1B visa, but Trump’s base has pushed back, claiming that such immigration undermines opportunities for native workers. This ongoing tension will likely shape the future of skilled immigration policy, potentially limiting the influx of foreign workers that industries like technology, healthcare, and engineering depend on.

Long-Term Implications for Immigration in the U.S.

While Day One will set a new tone for immigration policy, the long-term effects of Trump’s second term could reshape the nation’s approach to immigration in profound ways. With aggressive deportation measures, cuts to humanitarian protections, and more restrictive asylum policies, the U.S. will likely experience a shift toward a more exclusionary and enforcement-driven immigration system.

  • Stronger Border Security: The physical toll on border communities will likely be significant as Trump ramps up efforts to secure the U.S.-Mexico border. With the possibility of additional walls, surveillance systems, and stricter enforcement protocols, border areas could become militarized zones, with increased arrests and detentions.
  • Social and Economic Disruption: The reduction in immigrant populations, particularly in low-wage sectors like agriculture and construction, could slow economic growth. Immigrant workers fill essential roles in many industries, and their removal could lead to labor shortages, higher costs for consumers, and reduced productivity across the economy.

A Divisive Debate on Immigration: As legal challenges to these policies mount, the debate over immigration is likely to become even more polarized. Advocacy groups will fight against the implementation of these harsh measures, while those in favor of more stringent immigration controls will continue to argue for the economic and security benefits of a reduced immigration flow. This divisiveness will likely shape U.S. immigration law for years to come.

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