The title of this post is the title of this new report authored by Robin Goldstein with lots of data and analysis about state cannabis markets. Here is part of the report’s introduction:
When legal interstate weed commerce arrives to America, what will happen? Where will cannabis thrive, and where will it wither?
The answers are complex and mostly unknown, but the first and most straightforward answer is that the businesses who win will come from the places where weed is cheap.
Interstate commerce will bring local, state industries into competition in a national market. Costs and prices vary widely by state, but states’ current costs and prices do not necessarily reflect what they will be when weed is federally legal. Most weed sold in America is inexpensive, near the bottom of the retail price range. The locations most likely to win in a national price competition will be places where weed can be grown and sold most cheaply….
Consider this report a guidebook to the future of the United States weed market. My aim is to provide some insights into the answers to the questions above by comparing state-by-state costs, prices, and other data and information that can help industry participants, investors, and regulators understand what will happen to national and state weed markets in the first years after US interstate trade is legalized.
Local costs currently hinge, to a significant degree, on state and local cannabis policies, which is why my colleagues and I sometimes think of national cannabis competition in terms of competition among states, not just competition among farms and other businesses. Many answers come down to geography, utility costs, and the general costs of doing business — any kind of business — in a state.
I hope that the broad patterns summarized here can help cast light on where weed is most likely to win, and how future regulatory outcomes may change the landscape.