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Imagine you are playing golf, badly, and at the fourth hole a caddy appears out of nowhere with a large box and an offer. In exchange for $20, you can open the box, which may contain high-tech clubs to improve your game, fashionable new gloves or a voucher for a free round. Perhaps you hesitate, uncertain whether paying $20 will be worth the potential reward, but those new golf clubs are tempting. Now imagine a…