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Inside the “black box:” Analyzing the Feb. 17, 2026 jurisdictional announcements

By Terry Posey on February 24, 2026
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Table of Contents

  • The Feb. 17, 2026 snapshot
  • 2026 year-to-date: The big picture
  • Data comparison: Feb. 17 vs. 2026 YTD
  • Realistic limitations

Welcome back to OhioAppeals.com. For practitioners, the Ohio Supreme Court’s discretionary docket can often feel like a black box. By tracking every yes and no, we aim to provide a data-driven look at how the Supreme Court is shaping its calendar.

Today, we look at the announcements from Feb. 17, 2026, and how they compare to the broader trends we’ve seen in the 144 total discretionary appeal decisions issued throughout 2026 YTD.

A note on the data: We are working with a dataset of 144 discretionary decisions released so far in 2026. While the sample size is growing, we must be realistic. Statistical significance in judicial voting is a long-game analysis; one or two weeks of data can show a ripple but not necessarily a tide. These statistics are not guaranteed accurate and are to be used for entertainment purposes only (under certain definitions of “entertainment”).

Link to The Feb. 17, 2026 snapshot The Feb. 17, 2026 snapshot

The Feb. 17th release was a high-volume day for the court, handling 58 jurisdictional decisions.

  • The acceptance rate: 8.62% (5/58). The trend: This batch was notably more active than the year-to-date average. The court moved forward with five substantive cases, including State ex rel. Yost v. Cent. Tobacco & Stuff, Inc. and Dornette v. Green Bldg. Consulting, L.L.C.
  • The “hold” pattern: We continue to see the court holding cases (such as State v. Riffee and State v. Stonewall) pending other decisions (here, State v. Striblin). This effectively freezes the appeal without a final yes or no, a tactical move practitioners must account for in their timelines and consideration of whether they will get to participate on the merits.

Link to 2026 year-to-date: The big picture 2026 year-to-date: The big picture

By looking at the full 2026 dataset (144 cases), we can establish more reliable benchmarks for practitioners.

The “Jurisdictional Speed Index” (JSI)

We define the wait time as the period between the referral (triggered by an opposition/waiver or the 30-day filing mark) and the final decision.

  • Average wait (accepted): 52.7 Days
  • Average wait (rejected): 49.3 Days
  • The takeaway: There is a decision window around the 50-day mark. If your case passes this point, it often indicates a more robust internal debate, which historically correlates with a slightly higher chance of acceptance.

The waiver advantage

Does choosing to file a waiver of memorandum in response instead of a full opposition speed things up?

  • Decision with waiver: 47.8 Days
  • Decision with opposition: 49.4 Days
  • The takeaway: While a waiver only shaves about 1.5 days off the total wait time, it provides a slight efficiency gain for appellees looking for a quick resolution.

The shadow vote: Identifying receptive justices

The most valuable data point for appellants is the lone dissent—where a justice votes to accept a case that the majority rejects.

  • Most receptive: So far in 2026, Justice Fischer (17 dissents) and Justice Brunner (14 dissents) are the most frequent voices in favor of accepting jurisdiction when the case is declined.
  • The threshold case: Roughly 40% of all cases accepted this year were decided by a narrow 4-3 vote. This highlights just how critical it is to tailor your memorandum to the specific interests of the swing justices.

Link to Data comparison: Feb. 17 vs. 2026 YTD Data comparison: Feb. 17 vs. 2026 YTD

MetricFeb. 17 Announcements2026 Year-to-Date
Acceptance Rate8.62%6.94%
Total Cases Decided58144
Avg. Wait Time48.2 Days49.5 Days
Top Dissenting VoiceFischer / BrunnerFischer

Link to Realistic limitations Realistic limitations

While these numbers are helpful for setting expectations, they are subject to statistical noise. The Supreme Court’s docket is not a machine; it is a human institution. However, for the practitioner, knowing that the “line in the sand” for acceptance is currently around 7% provides a vital reality check when counseling clients on the odds of a discretionary appeal.

Photo of Terry Posey Terry Posey

Terry is an Ohio State Bar Association certified appellate specialist and a former Ohio Supreme Court clerk. He represents clients in all aspects of complex litigation, with a particular emphasis on the appellate aspects of those disputes. He has successfully argued in all…

Terry is an Ohio State Bar Association certified appellate specialist and a former Ohio Supreme Court clerk. He represents clients in all aspects of complex litigation, with a particular emphasis on the appellate aspects of those disputes. He has successfully argued in all 12 Ohio appellate districts and the Ohio Supreme Court.

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  • Posted in:
    Appellate and Supreme Court
  • Blog:
    Ohio Appellate Insights
  • Organization:
    Porter Wright Morris & Arthur LLP
  • Article: View Original Source

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